My NBA model went 39 for 54, and Dallas cost me the most
My model got 39 of 54 games right this week, a 72% week that lifts the season to 99 of 146. The Lakers and Knicks kept winning, Oklahoma City and New York had the biggest jumps in point margin, and Houston dropped two in a row. One 87% pick in Dallas went badly wrong.
The model’s week
| This week | Winners called | Margin miss (avg) | Season so far |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8 | 39 of 54 (72%) | 10.7 pts | 99 of 146 |
The record was 39-15 (72%), and my average miss on the final margin was 10.7 points. That beats my season average of 11.2. The best call was Portland at Phoenix on Nov. 4. I gave Portland 87%, and they won 132-119, only 1.3 points off my margin. The sharpest margin was Atlanta at Indiana, which I had Atlanta winning at 66%. Atlanta won 108-104, and my margin was off by just 0.4.
The biggest miss was on the first day, Nov. 2. I picked Dallas at 87% at home against Sacramento, and Sacramento won 115-100. That is a 27.5-point miss on the margin, and it was a clear one. When a team wins by 15 and I had it losing comfortably, there is nothing to dress up.
Team spotlight
Los Angeles Lakers
This week 4-0 (vs MIA W 138-117, @ SAC W 116-103, vs POR W 124-118, @ DET W 121-116) · season 9-2 · net rating +7.7 (7th of 30)
The Lakers went 4-0 this week with an average margin of +11.2 and now sit at 9-2 on a five-game win streak. They beat Miami 138-117, Sacramento 116-103, Portland 124-118 and Detroit 121-116. Their season net rating is +7.7 (125.4 offense, 117.7 defense), seventh in the league.
New York Knicks
This week 3-0 (vs BKN W 103-90, vs CHI W 135-105, @ CLE W 109-97) · season 5-4 · net rating +6.0 (9th of 30)
The Knicks were the week’s cleanest story in the numbers. They went 3-0 with an average margin of +18.3, beating Brooklyn 103-90, Chicago 135-105 and Cleveland 109-97 on the road. That puts them at 5-4, on a three-game streak, with a season net rating of +6.0 (115.9 offense, 109.9 defense), ninth in the league.
Houston Rockets
This week 1-2 (vs BOS W 109-93, vs MIN L 107-117, @ PHX L 99-102) · season 7-3 · net rating +9.5 (4th of 30)
Houston went 1-2. They beat Boston 109-93, then lost at home to Minnesota 107-117 and at Phoenix 99-102, and they are now on a two-game losing streak at 7-3. The week’s average margin was just +1.0, well below what a season net rating of +9.5 (fourth in the league) would suggest.
Boston Celtics
This week 3-1 (@ HOU L 93-109, vs MIL W 109-102, @ CHA W 119-80, @ MIL W 117-97) · season 8-2 · net rating +11.2 (1st of 30)
Boston still has the best net rating in the league at +11.2 (120.8 offense, 109.5 defense), and finished the week 3-1 with an average margin of +12.5. The one loss was at Houston, 93-109. After that they beat Milwaukee 109-102, Charlotte 119-80 and Milwaukee again 117-97. They are 8-2.
Who moved
Oklahoma City had the biggest jump in the chart. The Thunder went 4-0 with an average margin of +20.8, up 12.8 from their season average of +8.0. New York is right behind at +18.3 against +5.7 (up 12.6). Sacramento also moved up, from -13.3 on the season to -4.8 this week, a gain of 8.5. They went 1-3, but the win was the 15-point upset in Dallas that was my biggest miss. On the way down, Memphis fell the furthest. The Grizzlies went 0-3 at -12.0 after a season margin of +6.1, a drop of 18.1. Charlotte went 0-3 at -27.3, down 13.4 from an already low -13.9. Washington went 1-3 at -13.0, down 8.3 from -4.7.
The week ahead
Next week opens on Nov. 9 with Lakers at Hawks and Nuggets at Rockets, and Tuesday’s New York game against Milwaukee is the one my model likes most, at 77%. The full table is below, and every pick stays on the live picks page as games are played.
| Day | Game | Model's pick | Win chance | Projected margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 9 | LAL @ ATL | ATL | 59% | even |
| Mon Nov 9 | CLE @ CHA | CLE | 53% | CLE by 6 |
| Mon Nov 9 | DEN @ HOU | HOU | 59% | HOU by 3 |
| Tue Nov 10 | MIL @ NYK | NYK | 77% | NYK by 13 |
| Tue Nov 10 | BOS @ PHI | PHI | 58% | PHI by 2 |
| Tue Nov 10 | ORL @ SAC | ORL | 51% | ORL by 1 |
| Wed Nov 11 | CLE @ NYK | NYK | 60% | NYK by 4 |
| Wed Nov 11 | BOS @ TOR | BOS | 52% | even |
| Sat Nov 14 | DAL @ CLE | DAL | 51% | even |
Every game, updated every 30 minutes until tip-off: today’s predictions. Team ratings and form: the team dashboard.
That’s the week, miss and all. Come back next Monday and I’ll show you how these picks turned out.
How these numbers work: the picks come from my XGBoost models, which use team statistics (recent form, ratings, rest, travel), not player availability. Each pick locks at tip-off.
